3 forex books about technical analysis - Sensational Findings


Book I

Chapter 4

NO. 3 DELUSION: Forex LITERATURE AS A 90-95% OF THE TRADERS LOOSE THEIR DEPOSIT.

This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al.

Following the burn down of their first deposit traders plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners’ mistakes.

This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers… But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn’t because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June “Intraday trading: secrets of mastership”. With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.

NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.

WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.

As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It’s them, who have understood forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.

Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space. 

I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden. 

With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.

By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.

AND WHAT’S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.

Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive forex market laws.

In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let’s at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).

Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:

- scrutinize the really great traders’ heritage;

- open accounts with Forex Broker's and banks, start trading and…

- loose funds up to complete rout!

AND WHERE’S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... There’s something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.

STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:

1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.

2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the forex market is changing.

3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve.

Thus, once one’s advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one’s books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.

Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are “confided” at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named “great”. So, one’s books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.

Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.

G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov’s being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.

 Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.

At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.

And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?

I am recalling the book titled “The Alchemy of Finance” by G. Soros (the one I’ve read in early 90-s). I admit, it’s interesting, instructive…, but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.

So what’s the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.

You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries’ cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:

1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.

2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country’s economy faces a natural recession.

Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries’ companies’ shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What’s going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?

Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia .

There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?

The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.

The theory is permeated by Soros’s strategy: enter long on what’s shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and “pull out” Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.

This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with “tertium non datum”.

And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply ”Yes!”, indicating what exactly is to be added.

I’ll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.

Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005.

The Alligator’s jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.

Another example.

Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005.

Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.

Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?

With the Alligator’s mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise…, You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams’s technique, let alone other ones.

Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray…, even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator’s father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change? These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.

Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.

Let’s open one of them (E. Nayman’s “Trader’s Minor Encyclopedia” and “Master-trading: Secret Files”) to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.

You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: “Master-trading: Secret Files”, 320 pages of sheer secrets…

HOWEVER, I HAVEN’T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! Hereinafter You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:

1. “The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics” being a detailed story of how a country’s macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.

A “valuable” secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country’s economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.

2. “Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof”. The author furnishes a “wise” recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).

The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author’s; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.

Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a “lighter” MA has crossed a “heavier” one, say, upwards, but… thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.

  Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders’ losses.

Now, let’s call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.

3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman’s: “a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values”. Much of a secret, isn’t it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn’t even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer. 

 Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.

Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn.

Another example:

 Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn.

As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we’ll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.

4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of “head’n’shoulders” and “double bottom” patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.

And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:

Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical “inverted H&S”

At 1.8871 there’s an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up… nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.

To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman’s “Trader’s Minor Encyclopedia” and “Master-trading: secret files” purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.

The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good “ABCs OF FOREX” thus giving birth to all Nayman’s merits and demerits.

The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners’ paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman’s books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.

Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way. 

This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman’s books, then only it’s worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing.

Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman’s self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one’s Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.

But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the “Master-trading: Secret Files” fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably. 

In no more than 3 weeks after my “Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders” internet release I found myself in receipt of hundreds of letters from people, lead astray by bombastic names of books of Nayman and others having undergone training at various “distinguished” DCs.

Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers’ staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.

With these facts being proclaimed, I don’t hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.

There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.

Imagine, You have studied a manual of fundamental surgery. Does it mean You are able to perform surgical operations? Even having studied a dozen of manuals You are not likely to become a surgeon. Then, why the procedure is considered practicable at Forex?

Is it now understandable why a dozen of Nayman-style books will bring You to the identical result at Forex, i.e. to a loss. Simple enough, but these attractive semi-manuals authors reverberate the ABC truisms (FA data importance, rumor trade, macroeconomic indicators, TA facilities, R&S levels, etc., the things being useful for a trader’s field of vision development, but not for profit-building).

The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: “Trading Chaos” and “New aspects of exchange trading”, where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones’, viz. Elliott’s.

My book, “Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders” is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex. 

Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.

In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;

- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his “Trading Chaos”;

- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;

- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.

My book, “Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders” is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.

Each of my book’s 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.

B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of forex currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it’s feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: “Ally and adversary currencies”).

 B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.

 B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a “safety cushion”, whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.

B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria. 

Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.

B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them.

B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially.

The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex.

A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below.

It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:

- Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland;

- Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders;

- using AO is similar to reading tomorrow’s “Wall Street Journal”, while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow’s issue thereof;

- by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one’s broker and say: “Sell at the market price!”.

As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams’s “New aspects of Exchange Trade”. Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams’s indicators may entail an abyss of losses.

But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The “faultlessness” is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams’s indicators. 

By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not.

Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven’t done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).

I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams’s technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses).

By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams’s method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader’s consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man’s inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: ”If You wanna get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!” Etc., etc., etc…

The whole of the above has reminded me of another renowned late 80s – early 90s post-Soviet psycho therapist, Anatoly Kashpirovsky, who, by virtue of similar methods, attempted to establish mass curing procedures the way, B. Williams attempts attraction of a mass of advocates to support his immature technique.

Kashpirovsky’s method is also sure to possess a certain pep to have helped somebody’s recovery. But, are achievements of Williams superior to those of Kashpirovky, provided that 90% of traders are losers, while out of the outstanding 10% only a half are his adherents?

Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams’s followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros’ trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let’s continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading.

- The “Theory of Chaos” of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue.

- Trader’s psychological problems. I haven’t found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS.

- The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages’ elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn’t noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex. 

 Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams’s “Trading Chaos”: what’s the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what’s the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with moronity?

Doubtlessly, it’s funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian.

Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader’s store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue.

I have shortly come across an apophthegm: “Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted therefrom”.

If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY?

BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one’s originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.

“An outstanding Forex trading techniques” and “a genius scholar”, etc., making their appearance in books’ abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge.

Sale is publisher’s primary target, giving birth to “genius” mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as “genius” with account to the above formula. He is rather “eccentric” than “genius”.

The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams’s choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams’s postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal.

CONCLUSION: I guess, it’s understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice.

Much more respect-triggering is Warren Baffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Baffet is the world’s second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Baffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to.

The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates’s official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Baffet’s profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange.

Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a “crise de genre” and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning forex market.

In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance:

A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology.

B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what’s the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems.

This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he’s gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily “evaluate” the “outstanding contribution” made by each of Forex scholars.

4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark’s “Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science” recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book’s preface qualifies it to be “refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods”. And thereinafter: “Demark’s empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals.” But, with having not disclosed his system’s essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter “Why price projections may not go into effect”: “…due to no technique being perfect”. Good a science with “no technique being perfect”!

Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd.

In accordance to Demark, “a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered”. I am itching to ask the scholar: “How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?” I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: “This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency”. Well, I’ve got it. Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely.

Take a look at the picture below: 

  Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 – April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat.

How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark’s ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader’s deposit be to survive Demark’s experiments, being ranked “refined techniques” and “strictly scientific approaches”, “cardinally different from others’ ”, less scientific ones, as I can guess.

The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: “One oughtn’t to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success”. Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: “Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it’s in no way helpful to You”. Well, what’s the use of buying the book at such price?

Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book’s objective to be “fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques”. Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility. Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one’s brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory. 

Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark’s scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book.

John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the “less art – more science” slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area.

As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse.

Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation… How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them:

- B. Williams “Trading Chaos”, “New aspects of Exchange Trading”;

- J. Murphy “TA of Futures Markets”

- S. Nisson “Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis”

- A. Elder “Basics of Exchange Trading”

- L. Williams. “Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade”

- Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas “Computer Analysis of Futures Markets”

- D. Swagger “TA, Comprehensive Course”

… and hardly few more.

If You divide, say, a dozen of authors by 750 references hereto attached, You will bump into a miserable percent of those tutoring practical trading instead of delivering lectures on R&S lines right-left/left-right drawing and deeming themselves heavy contributors to Forex science. This sort of contribution is no relief for those having burnt their fund by virtue of “outstanding techniques”.

Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex.

99% of books on Forex are reminiscent of the way the WWII history has been interpreted in the Soviet Union. Dozens of thousands books have been released, both documentary and fiction, depicting and glorifying all in all: front-line soldiers, intelligence agents, guerillas, military in the rear…

Even professional historians proved short of power to HAVE READ IT ALL, while the books continued and continued being published. WHAT FOR? What sort of falsehood had to be curtained by an ocean of true or nearly true information about individual war episodes?

The situation progressed till a certain investigator made proper use of his professional skills in information collection and analysis he has been taught in Intelligence Academy. But the fact is that he has applied the above skills of his to WWII history. As You may have guessed, we are talking about Victor Suvorov ( Vladimir Rezoon) and his books: “Icebreaker”, “D-day”, etc.

He has successfully presented the war in a manner being in direct opposition to what has used to be before. With this manner realized, one gets immediate logical understanding of every episode from the war beginning to its end, embracing even what has not been clearly explained prior to Suvorov’s effort:

- Why did pre-war repressions take place (see “The Clearance” novel)?. Why has a clear-minded country leader decapitated the army on the verge of the war? Dr. Gebbels was the first to understand it in April, 1945, having written in his diary about the wisdom of Stalin, who has made the Red Army invincible by way of subjecting his military men to repressions. But Gebbels turned out to be too late to realize it, with the fact still remaining beyond numerous Russian historians’ comprehension up to now.

- Why has Hitler assaulted USSR ? The fact has apparently nothing to do with his ambitions pertinent to land conquering and raw material sources acquisition. By that time Hitler possessed insufficient power even to seize the south of Franceand French and Dutch colonies being actually ownerless the world over, which fact required to replace French and Dutch administration by the German one only. Could the Byelorussian Baranovichi or the Ukrainian Berdichev be in some way more attractive than the French Cote d’Azur?

- Why there has been so a disgraceful defeat in 1941, in spite of the Soviet multiple military superiority?

- Why has Stalin refused taking the 1945 Victory Parade, having commissioned Zhukov with the job?

- Why has the USSRinsisted on staging the “Nurnberg process” show, while the democracy-adherent allies sought shooting the fascist Germany top leaders court-martial free. Why was Stalin so thirsty for the trial? Why have the HQ Field Marshalls been executed as found guilty of planning occupation of India and Iran following the USSR conquest, whereas the others having perpetrated atrocities on the Soviet territory were granted life?

I may go on with tens of similar questions, nevertheless, we are discussing not the war history, but books on Forex, which issues being incorporative of two common aspects at least.

Episode-friendly truth conceals truth about the SYSTEM, both in pre-Suvorov WWII history and in books on Forex published up today. Thus, TRUTH and PART OF TRUTH on each Forex aspect (fundamental data influence, Elliott waves, Fibo levels, continuation and reversal patterns, etc) are in no way interconnected so, that no trader were able to understand the entire of Forex SYSTEM.

Well, I may tolerate the above system having neither been ultimately understood by the writers and the publishers pressing for tremendous royalties. That’s why reading PUBLISHED TRUTH provides no remedy for getting insight into Forex rules and for easy earnings therein, just the way no truth about the USSR WWII plans and objectives is perceivable without utilizing Suvorov’s approach thereto.

By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels.

One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer.

The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment.

I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams’s; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks’ impotent daily forecasts.

After reading Suvorov’s books, any fact pertinent to the war turns sensible, clear and logical. I have embarked on the same way and I have done the same thing with reference to Forex, since literature on Forex is overloaded with falsehood even to a greater extent than that on WWII.

But now let’s move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios’ anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement.

For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow’s postulates: 

- a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a forex currency pair to stand open for so a long period;

- a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend;

- a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency;

- intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to.

You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005.

Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart.  

Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart.

 CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow’s might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently. Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards.

I have disclosed one example of dogmatism only, but there are hundreds and thousands of them. 

I guess there’s no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading. 

By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body.

I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries.

It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex.

GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one’s native country’s throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite. 


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Risk Warning

Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any off-exchange foreign exchange transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. More over, the leveraged nature of forex trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin requirement, your position may be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. To manage exposure, employ risk-reducing strategies such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders. Placing Contingent Orders (stop loss, limit, etc) may not limit your losses to the intended amounts”

 

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